Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D2 0xd27b…43e3 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$365 (+37%) realized +$367 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$137
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$363
other 5% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +69.6% +53.5% 100% 67% +56.0%
≤90d 9 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 33% +37.9%
all 14 +11.0% +0.4% 93% 21% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 21% +32.3%
10% -9.2% 21% +19.6%
15% -17.9% 21% +8.1%
20% -26.0% 7% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.52 per $1 lost it wins $47.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage172d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $207 $204 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 +$137 +165%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 25 $244 +$106 +44%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $308 +$122 +40%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Janua Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 06 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.29 · official $204.29 (match) · 29 history records