Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd27a…2508 other 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$96 (-0%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 25% −$14
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$9
crypto 6% −$1
culture 6% −$4
world 3% −$34
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage131d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $446 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $248 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $165 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $490 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $243 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $408 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $447 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $233 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $761 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $42 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $42 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 9h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 10h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 19h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $42 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $42 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $42 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $42 28h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 38h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 38h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 40h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 44h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 46h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1440 history records