Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd27a…a9d1 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,402 (-15%) realized −$1,391 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,191
7 days−$1,206
14 days−$1,198
30 days−$1,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,122
other 12% −$96
crypto 2% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.0% -10.4% 71% 50% -24.5%
≤30d 30 +2.1% -7.6% 73% 50% -24.4%
≤90d 30 +2.1% -7.6% 73% 50% -24.4%
all 30 +2.1% -7.6% 73% 50% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -24.4%
10% -16.5% 37% -31.6%
15% -24.5% 27% -38.3%
20% -31.9% 17% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$249 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,208
Realized−$1,391
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions13
Markets (closed)30 / 45
History coverage18d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $1,549 $1,540 −$9 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 55¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$31 +15%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $600 +$16 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,228 +$179 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,303 +$102 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $804 −$691 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $202 +$8 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$41 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $762 −$757 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $69 +$47 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$133 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $603 +$140 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $107 +$13 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$50 +58%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $52 +$14 +27%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $55 +$19 +34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $53 +$22 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $201 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,004 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $23 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $301 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 12¢ $114 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL No 88¢ $210 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $67 5h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $600 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $503 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $31 16h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $101 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 83¢ $202 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $50 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 24h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 81¢ $30 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $51 24h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $201 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,207.55 · official $2,237.55 · 83 history records