Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd278…0ff5 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
economics 15% +$3
politics 14% $0
other 14% −$10
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 26 -1.8% -11.1% 15% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 39 -2.9% -12.1% 23% 8% -9.2%
all 43 -4.7% -13.8% 28% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage531d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 +$10 +22%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $112 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 −$1 -60%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7 −$1 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $8 +$2 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $293 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $81 −$3 -3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 31 $169 +$3 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $257 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $111 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $45 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $42 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.89 · official $40.00 · 178 history records