Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd277…b271 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$6
politics 29% −$5
world 9% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$884) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$1,087
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage98d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,031 $1,031 −$1 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series Jun 26 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $884 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 14 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 25 $184 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Mar 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 7m
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $993 16m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 24m
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL No 100¢ $1,092 30m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 40m
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 100¢ $1,065 48m
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $38 55m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 1h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $987 1h
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $71 37d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 37d
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $53 37d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 37d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 37d
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $18 37d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 37d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 37d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 37d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $882 40d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 40d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 40d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $817 40d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 40d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $892 40d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 40d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 40d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $861 40d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $726 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.32 · official $1,087.32 (match) · 82 history records