Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd277…73fe sports 650 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 184d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,095 (+6%) realized +$9,163 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%369W / 270L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$297est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,255
7 days+$2,593
14 days+$2,056
30 days+$4,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$233
other 35% +$12,816
crypto 5% +$1,388
world 1% −$790
politics 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.3% +9.8% 73% 67% +12.7%
≤30d 42 +24.4% +12.6% 62% 60% +8.6%
≤90d 139 +5.4% -4.7% 58% 54% +12.2%
all 639 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 55% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 55% -0.7%
10% -14.1% 48% -10.2%
15% -22.4% 40% -18.9%
20% -30.0% 31% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$146 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$7,183
Realized+$9,163
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses369 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$297
Open positions12
Markets (closed)639 / 650
History coverage185d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 58¢ 51¢ $3,553 $3,130 −$423 (-12%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 96¢ $1,018 $1,108 +$90 (+9%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $563 $888 +$324 (+58%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 72¢ 84¢ $684 $794 +$110 (+16%)
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 48¢ 98¢ $281 $575 +$294 (+105%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $560 $385 −$175 (-31%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 40¢ $206 $125 −$82 (-40%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $28 $106 +$78 (+278%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 66¢ $33 $42 +$9 (+28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $22 +$6 (+34%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 13¢ $302 $1 −$301 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $245 +$529 +216%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $542 +$318 +59%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $2,047 +$408 +20%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $254 +$355 +140%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4,094 +$24 +1%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $369 +$126 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $1,368 +$359 +26%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $613 +$377 +62%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $325 +$175 +54%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $304 +$284 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 20 $283 −$204 -72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $255 +$526 +206%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $804 −$800 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $295 +$205 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $264 +$136 +52%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $512 +$288 +56%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $402 +$198 +49%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $304 +$222 +73%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $113 +$887 +785%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $880 +$220 +25%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,647 −$130 -8%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $267 +$33 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $343 −$340 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $212 +$188 +89%
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $171 −$171 -100%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 01 $136 +$50 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $48 +$113 +238%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,007 +$1,032 +51%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $697 +$203 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3,055 +$4,637 +152%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $248 +$152 +61%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $320 +$80 +25%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 22 $1,263 +$1,020 +81%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $89 +$100 +113%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $506 +$160 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 40¢ $95 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 62¢ $8 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 55¢ $553 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,037 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $721 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $91 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1,643 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $254 2d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,089 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $365 2d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $3 3d
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $33 3d
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $46 3d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 64¢ $303 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $216 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $325 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $304 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,182.77 · official $7,183.33 (match) · 3500 history records