Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd273…9a33 sports 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,819 (-10%) realized −$3,819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%76W / 71L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$493est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$489
14 days+$1,577
30 days+$3,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,475
other 4% +$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.2% -18.7% 56% 52% -28.9%
≤30d 115 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 53% +8.6%
≤90d 147 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 50% -19.9%
all 147 -8.9% -17.5% 52% 50% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -19.9%
10% -25.4% 44% -27.6%
15% -32.6% 36% -34.6%
20% -39.2% 28% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$230 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses76 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$493
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage43d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $82 +$21 +25%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $74 +$26 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $32 +$8 +24%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $46 +$24 +53%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $48 −$14 -28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $169 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$5 +118%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $129 $0 -0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $136 +$25 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $42 +$47 +112%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 +$16 +56%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 +$3 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $47 −$9 -20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 −$14 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $122 −$18 -14%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $23 +$5 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $181 +$69 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 +$18 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $89 −$24 -27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $23 +$8 +37%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $82 +$20 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 +$53 +112%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $88 +$32 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $135 −$134 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $109 +$41 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$6 +133%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 +$6 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +35%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $42 +$23 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $73 −$72 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $95 −$94 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $16 +$12 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $62 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $41 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $16 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $35 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $1 7h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 81¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 16¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 16¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 16¢ $3 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $74 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL 100 Thieves 39¢ $34 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $32 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 34¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 54¢ $11 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 61¢ $30 10h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 59¢ $12 11h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 68¢ $3 11h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 68¢ $24 11h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 68¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 18¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 49¢ $115 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 28¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 35¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 545 history records