Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd272…67d7 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$4
other 29% −$2
sports 16% −$1
crypto 10% +$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 34 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage613d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 30? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on April 14? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 14? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 21? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 21? Apr 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on March 21? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 12? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Feb 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? Nov 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Nov 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 24 $36 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $72 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 02 $1,270 −$1 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will another candidate be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 22 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 22 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 22 $2,432 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 24d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $21 77d
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $28 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $55 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 98d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $34 98d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $3 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $21 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 137d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 137d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $25 137d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $7 137d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $2 137d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY No 100¢ $16 137d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja BUY No 100¢ $33 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 161d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $19 161d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 161d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $5 161d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $103 227d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $40 270d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 270d
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 306d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 343d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $61 521d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $31 553d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.64 · official $104.58 (match) · 75 history records