Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D2 0xd26d…a951 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$323 (+13%) realized +$325 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate61%11W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$131per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$194

7 days+$203

14 days+$203

30 days+$260

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)+7.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+4.4%	-5.5%	60%	60%	+13.7%
≤30d	6	+9.9%	-0.6%	67%	67%	+15.4%
≤90d	16	-3.1%	-12.3%	56%	56%	-3.3%
all	18	+18.5%	+7.2%	61%	61%	+2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.2%	61%	+2.1%
10%	-3.0%	56%	-7.7%
15%	-12.4%	56%	-16.6%
20%	-21.0%	33%	-24.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$86 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.49 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$325

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses11 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage145d

Avg bet$131

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$101	−$38	-38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$203	+$192	+94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$202	+$40	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	+$92	+46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$84	−$83	-99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	May 30	$151	+$56	+37%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	May 17	$101	+$63	+62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	May 11	$133	+$92	+69%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?	May 02	$121	−$120	-99%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	Apr 26	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	Apr 26	$70	−$70	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?	Apr 26	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 26	$88	+$33	+38%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$377	−$190	-51%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 19	$120	+$53	+44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?	Apr 13	$100	+$129	+129%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad	Feb 25	$100	+$67	+67%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Jan 25	$24	+$77	+316%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$198	14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	72¢	$197	15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	42¢	$203	16h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$77	23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	71¢	$165	24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	71¢	$63	25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$84	5d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$207	20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	75¢	$50	20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	20d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$49	33d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	SELL Yes	79¢	$115	33d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	33d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	SELL Yes	88¢	$195	40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	BUY Yes	50¢	$113	40d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?	BUY Yes	80¢	$121	48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	72¢	$88	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	87¢	$77	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	SELL No	17¢	$47	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY No	71¢	$200	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	SELL Yes	29¢	$51	55d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$100	55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?	SELL No	11¢	$9	61d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.31 · official $198.31 (match) · 50 history records