Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D2 0xd26d…7c20 crypto 1230 markets active 9h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-5%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%777W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$504
7 days−$526
14 days−$529
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$222
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -66.6% -69.8% 22% 17% -50.3%
≤30d 319 -59.6% -63.5% 27% 20% -43.8%
≤90d 1308 -22.1% -29.5% 55% 37% -24.1%
all 1406 -21.7% -29.2% 55% 37% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 37% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 24% -30.9%
15% -42.1% 16% -37.6%
20% -47.8% 10% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses777 / 629
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1406 / 1230
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1406 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records