Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd269…6b9a other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,829 (-3%) realized −$12,277 · open +$4,448
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%34W / 8L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,771per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$119,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$6,779
other 28% +$2,317
sports 19% −$20,293
finance 10% +$4,568
politics 6% +$441
crypto 3% +$603
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.1% -19.5% 82% 18% -35.5%
≤30d 36 +27.3% +15.2% 81% 22% -19.4%
≤90d 42 +21.3% +9.8% 81% 19% -20.4%
all 42 +21.3% +9.8% 81% 19% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 19% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 12% -28.0%
15% -10.3% 7% -35.0%
20% -19.1% 7% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$9,970) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$4,140 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$119,148
Realized−$12,277
Unrealized+$4,448
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions12
Markets (closed)42 / 54
History coverage55d
Avg bet$5,771
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $15,000 $16,168 +$1,168 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $13,000 $14,617 +$1,617 (+12%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $9,950 $10,553 +$603 (+6%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10,000 $10,437 +$437 (+4%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $9,950 $10,350 +$400 (+4%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $9,950 $10,220 +$270 (+3%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,950 $10,220 +$270 (+3%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,950 $10,191 +$241 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10,000 $10,067 +$67 (+1%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 94¢ 89¢ $9,950 $9,366 −$584 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,566 +$566 (+11%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 90¢ 62¢ $2,000 $1,393 −$607 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $10,054 −$9,965 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $9,606 −$9,606 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $9,185 +$421 +5%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3,045 −$3,045 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $8,323 +$862 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $853 +$77 +9%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10,063 +$375 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,019 +$106 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3,019 +$106 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10,546 +$157 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,008 +$95 +9%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $405 +$6 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $202 +$18 +9%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $202 +$35 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $355 +$51 +14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $321 +$34 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $285 +$36 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $177 +$108 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $311 −$32 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $502 −$351 -70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$115 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $442 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $414 +$28 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $375 +$38 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$101 +976%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,241 +$6 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $181 +$14 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 14 $1,011 −$35 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1,012 −$38 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10,050 +$588 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10,050 +$455 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,950 +$377 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $9,950 +$769 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,950 +$415 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $10,040 +$2,834 +28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10,050 −$10,050 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $10,050 +$351 +4%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 23 $10,061 +$234 +2%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $10,053 +$11 +0%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $9,957 +$170 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,970 +$504 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $90 26m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10,054 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $9,606 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $9,185 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $8,323 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3,045 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $853 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10,063 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $3,019 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $3,019 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $10,546 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,008 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $202 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $202 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $405 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 87¢ $355 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $321 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $285 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $177 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $103 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $176 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $208 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $152 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $502 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $442 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $414 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $375 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119,147.81 · official $119,147.81 (match) · 106 history records