Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd268…69fb crypto 186 markets active 6d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-8%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%91W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$74
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$264
weather 2% −$49
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.1% -16.8% 62% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 71 -28.8% -35.6% 39% 30% -17.9%
≤90d 77 -30.2% -36.8% 39% 30% -20.4%
all 186 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 40% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -20.2%
10% -28.6% 30% -27.8%
15% -35.5% 22% -34.8%
20% -41.8% 13% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses91 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage169d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$37 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$49 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $165 −$21 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$36 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1075 history records