Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd268…fdfc other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$20 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+15.2%	+4.3%	88%	75%	+8.8%
≤30d	8	+15.2%	+4.3%	88%	75%	+8.8%
≤90d	8	+15.2%	+4.3%	88%	75%	+8.8%
all	8	+15.2%	+4.3%	88%	75%	+8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.3%	75%	+8.8%
10%	-5.7%	50%	-1.6%
15%	-14.8%	50%	-11.1%
20%	-23.2%	25%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$110

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage7d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	55¢	52¢	$114	$110	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$45	+$8	+19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$32	+$3	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$21	+$11	+52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$8	+$4	+53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$6	+$2	+36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$4	+$2	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$53	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$35	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$32	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$11	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$10	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$5	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$12	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$8	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$6	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.50 · official $109.50 (match) · 20 history records