Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd267…9dc6 other 136 markets active 5h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$365,933 (+51%) realized +$365,933 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%39W / 526L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,248per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$1,274est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$15,306
sports 22% +$22,329
world 0% −$60
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -97.7% -97.9% 1% 1% -90.7%
≤30d 462 -91.9% -92.7% 3% 3% -75.9%
≤90d 561 -82.6% -84.3% 7% 6% -58.8%
all 565 -78.6% -80.6% 7% 6% -59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.6% 6% -59.4%
10% -82.5% 6% -63.2%
15% ← realistic here -84.2% 6% -66.8%
20% -85.7% 6% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$3,444) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,816 vs −$2,267 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$365,933
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses39 / 526
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$1,274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)565 / 136
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$5,248
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 565 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 16 $14,532 −$14,532 -100%
Phillies vs. Astros Jun 16 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Jun 16 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? Jun 16 $7,527 −$7,530 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-09-26? Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 16 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-04? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jun 16 $4,631 −$4,631 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jun 16 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 16 $8,374 −$8,374 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 16 $5,047 −$5,047 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 16 $1,315 −$1,315 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 16 $1,246 −$1,246 -100%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jun 16 $7,475 −$7,475 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-21? Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? Jun 16 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-26? Jun 16 $1,303 −$1,303 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Charrière Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-10-23? Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Cardinals vs. Guardians Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jun 16 $1,307 −$1,307 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 16 $108 −$212 -196%
Falcons vs. Patriots Jun 16 $2,265 −$2,265 -100%
Yankees vs. Braves Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 16 $5,288 −$5,288 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-25? Jun 16 $777 −$777 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14? Jun 16 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? Jun 16 $4,456 −$4,456 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 16 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $588 −$588 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 16 $5,645 −$5,645 -100%
Tigers vs. Marlins Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $28 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $178 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $177 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $89 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $16 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $55 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $142 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $185 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $13 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $7 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $31 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $3 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $5 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $4 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $185 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $104 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $1 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $10 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records