Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd264…950b crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% -9.6%
≤90d 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% -9.6%
all 40 +3.9% -6.0% 98% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 18% -9.6%
10% -15.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -23.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$112 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $110 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $107 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $61 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records