Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd264…8485 crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate82%219W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day193.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$44
sports 20% +$30
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 36% -9.4%
≤30d 267 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 267 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 36% -9.4%
all 267 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 36% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 36% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 13% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses219 / 48
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day193.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $65 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$43 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -17%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $61 −$6 -10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $80 −$5 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $71 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $65 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $58 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $53 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $47 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $46 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $39 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $39 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 686 history records