Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D2 0xd264…e811 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$173 (-19%) realized −$204 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-68.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+85.9%	+68.2%	100%	100%	+68.2%
≤30d	6	-65.3%	-68.6%	17%	17%	-57.9%
≤90d	6	-65.3%	-68.6%	17%	17%	-57.9%
all	6	-65.3%	-68.6%	17%	17%	-57.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.6%	17%	-57.9%
10%	-71.6%	17%	-61.9%
15%	-74.4%	17%	-65.6%
20%	-76.9%	17%	-69.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -54% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$66 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$481

Realized−$204

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)6 / 11

History coverage24d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$150	+$50 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$100	$137	+$37 (+37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$100	$50	−$50 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	+$87	+86%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	May 30	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?	May 30	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	May 25	$103	−$80	-78%
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	May 25	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	May 25	$103	−$100	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$188	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	13d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	18d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	18d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	18d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	SELL Yes	1¢	$23	24d
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	24d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	24d
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	24d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.75 · official $481.13 (match) · 37 history records