Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd262…cbdf crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%96W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$27
14 days−$81
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$67
other 11% +$37
politics 3% +$8
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 48% -14.3%
≤30d 132 -10.6% -19.2% 72% 47% -14.2%
≤90d 134 -9.7% -18.3% 72% 47% -13.2%
all 134 -9.7% -18.3% 72% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 47% -13.2%
10% -26.2% 17% -21.5%
15% -33.3% 10% -29.1%
20% -39.8% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses96 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 71¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 44h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records