Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd261…6858 sports 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%12W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 23% −$5
politics 22% −$4
crypto 10% −$2
world 6% $0
culture 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 195 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses12 / 183
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage170d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $141 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 8h
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 94¢ $42 12d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 95¢ $42 12d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 23d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 24d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $43 34d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $44 34d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 103d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 103d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $40 103d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $40 104d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $37 104d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $37 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $35 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 104d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $38 104d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $38 105d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 106d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 107d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $39 107d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $40 107d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 107d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 107d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $42 112d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 96¢ $42 112d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $39 112d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $39 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $39 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $39 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 703 history records