Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd260…515c other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$42
14 days+$35
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$12
other 25% +$42
sports 22% −$13
crypto 9% −$8
economics 3% −$2
culture 3% −$1
world 3% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.2% -8.4% 8% 4% -7.9%
≤30d 74 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 117 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
all 129 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $96 +$55 +57%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $55 −$2 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $211 −$2 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $44 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 04 $55 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $253 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $207 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $37 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 35m
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $40 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $49 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 92¢ $9 16h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 24h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $62 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $62 35h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 36h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 43h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 43h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 47h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $65 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $44 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $45 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.80 · official $46.80 (match) · 485 history records