Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D2 0xd260…a80c world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$14
crypto 20% $0
finance 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -26.5% -33.5% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 17% 0% -10.7%
all 6 -8.9% -17.6% 17% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -10.7%
10% -25.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -32.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -39.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage15d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $201 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$6 -50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $199 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $201 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 03 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 02 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records