Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd25c…382f world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$60 (+15%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$69
other 20% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.5% +2.7% 40% 40% +2.6%
≤30d 5 +13.5% +2.7% 40% 40% +2.6%
≤90d 5 +13.5% +2.7% 40% 40% +2.6%
all 5 +13.5% +2.7% 40% 40% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 40% +2.6%
10% -7.1% 20% -7.3%
15% -16.1% 20% -16.2%
20% -24.3% 20% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$8 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $79 +$10 +12%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $80 −$16 -20%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $78 +$59 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $88 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 4h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No 8¢ $81 4h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $40 5h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 8¢ $41 5h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $60 6d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 6d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $73 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 6d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 6d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $137 6d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 7d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records