Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd25c…e9aa other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$333 (+35%) realized +$583 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +173% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip
Net edge+128%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+146.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +172.8% +146.9% 100% 100% +102.2%
≤30d 2 +172.8% +146.9% 100% 100% +102.2%
≤90d 2 +172.8% +146.9% 100% 100% +102.2%
all 2 +172.8% +146.9% 100% 100% +102.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +146.9% 100% +102.2%
10% +123.2% 50% +82.8%
15% +101.7% 50% +65.2%
20% +81.9% 50% +49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +124% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +173% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$583
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$332 +324%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $201 +$43 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 38¢ $242 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $244 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $200 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 9 history records