Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd25a…c956 crypto 500 markets active 6h ago coverage 382d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 381d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$2,981 · open +$2,974
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%419W / 56L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$18,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 382d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,842
other 17% +$2,801
tech 0% +$45
economics 0% −$101
sports 0% −$18
world 0% −$44
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.6% +4.6% 33% 33% +16.0%
≤30d 22 -49.2% -54.1% 27% 14% -18.7%
≤90d 22 -49.2% -54.1% 27% 14% -18.7%
all 475 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 11% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 11% -12.3%
10% -19.3% 6% -20.7%
15% -27.1% 4% -28.4%
20% -34.2% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$178 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$18,727
Realized−$2,981
Unrealized+$2,974
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses419 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)475 / 500
History coverage382d ⚠
Avg bet$382
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $11,374 $15,623 +$4,249 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $2,175 $1,270 −$905 (-42%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $384 $387 +$4 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $399 $303 −$96 (-24%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $123 $203 +$81 (+66%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $161 $180 +$19 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $192 $150 −$42 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $176 $104 −$73 (-41%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $130 $81 −$50 (-38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $77 $73 −$4 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $102 $69 −$33 (-32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $54 $35 −$19 (-36%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $69 $27 −$42 (-61%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-37%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-62%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-62%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-62%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $324 +$203 +62%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $624 −$14 -2%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $316 −$9 -3%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $63 −$56 -88%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $343 −$35 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,827 +$11 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $54 +$18 +33%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $662 −$47 -7%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $323 +$185 +57%
Will Morocco be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 18 $316 −$197 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $737 −$737 -100%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$69 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 −$54 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $931 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $801 +$18 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 04 $437 +$5 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 04 $362 +$7 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 04 $20 +$9 +47%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 04 $16 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - September 3, 9PM ET Sep 04 $45 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - September 3, 10PM ET Sep 04 $274 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - September 3, 8PM ET Sep 04 $71 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 2AM ET Sep 04 $376 +$4 +1%
Solana Up or Down - September 2, 1AM ET Sep 03 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 8PM ET Sep 03 $136 +$4 +3%
XRP Up or Down - August 26, 9PM ET Sep 01 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 9PM ET Sep 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 25, 10PM ET Aug 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 9PM ET Aug 26 $424 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 10PM ET Aug 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 8PM ET Aug 26 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2AM ET Aug 26 $327 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - August 21, 8PM ET Aug 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22 Aug 22 $146 −$108 -74%
XRP Up or Down - August 19, 9PM ET Aug 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11PM ET Aug 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 11PM ET Aug 19 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 8PM ET Aug 19 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - August 18, 8PM ET Aug 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 8PM ET Aug 19 $213 +$3 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 15 $422 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8PM ET Aug 14 $266 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 3AM ET Aug 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $706 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $706 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3,997 5h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $51 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $2 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $32 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $32 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $84 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $81 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $74 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $65 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $99 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $65 6d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 65¢ $13 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $3 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $3 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $7 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $7 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $23 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $132 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 47¢ $124 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $0 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $9 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $32 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $32 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $32 7d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,726.58 · official $18,726.58 (match) · 3500 history records