Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd255…bbca other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$121 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days−$19
14 days−$280
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$540
sports 5% +$157
crypto 2% −$55
world 1% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.4% -13.5% 26% 26% -10.6%
≤30d 32 -13.2% -21.5% 25% 25% -20.6%
≤90d 32 -13.2% -21.5% 25% 25% -20.6%
all 32 -13.2% -21.5% 25% 25% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 25% -20.6%
10% -29.0% 22% -28.2%
15% -35.9% 22% -35.2%
20% -42.2% 19% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$62 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage12d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $170 $198 +$28 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $152 +$32 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ assists Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $43 +$102 +238%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $58 −$57 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $108 +$417 +388%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $132 +$157 +119%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $68 −$66 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 +$2 +73%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Jun 22 $77 −$75 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assists Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goals Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 +$219 +855%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 −$380 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $66 −$65 -99%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $104 +$205 +197%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$106 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$65 -63%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $123 −$112 -91%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $12 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes $10 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $43 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ assists BUY Yes $23 2h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $43 5h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $58 5h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $68 23h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $108 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 45¢ $132 24h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $77 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $5 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $20 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $3 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $3 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $35 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $12 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $20 29h
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $21 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $3 29h
Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goals BUY Yes $27 2d
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals BUY Yes $26 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $383 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $66 6d
Vitinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.52 · official $350.52 (match) · 62 history records