Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd254…9858 other 447 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,618 (+3%) realized +$1,685 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%269W / 172L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$2,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,380
7 days+$2,009
14 days+$2,219
30 days+$2,332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$287
sports 34% +$1,293
finance 2% +$127
world 2% +$188
politics 1% −$86
culture 1% +$58
tech 0% −$30
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.2% +7.0% 82% 82% +16.5%
≤30d 71 +28.9% +16.6% 72% 72% +8.1%
≤90d 293 +3.7% -6.2% 62% 49% -3.8%
all 441 +2.2% -7.5% 61% 45% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 45% -6.2%
10% -16.4% 32% -15.2%
15% -24.4% 23% -23.4%
20% -31.8% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$39 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,132
Realized+$1,685
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses269 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions4
Markets (closed)441 / 447
History coverage153d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $1,959 $1,921 −$38 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,414 +$558 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,178 +$339 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $785 +$392 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $591 +$190 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $202 −$154 -76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $432 +$155 +36%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $268 +$35 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 −$49 -48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $308 +$121 +40%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$55 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $207 +$99 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $145 +$60 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $151 +$72 +48%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 +$23 +23%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $301 +$52 +17%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $239 +$73 +30%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $304 −$200 -66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 08 $101 +$48 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 +$41 +1322%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $302 +$100 +33%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $101 −$15 -15%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $101 −$6 -6%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $101 −$46 -46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$16 +16%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $50 +$16 +33%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$65 +65%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$84 +82%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 −$66 -66%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$46 +46%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$48 +48%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$74 +73%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$58 +57%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$55 +55%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $101 +$60 +59%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $226 +$58 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $102 −$12 -12%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,973 30m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,963 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,414 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $101 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,517 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,178 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $785 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $782 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $591 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 70¢ $202 39h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $48 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $161 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $202 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 88¢ $268 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $154 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $432 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $52 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $159 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 60¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $429 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $308 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $306 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,131.76 · official $2,131.76 (match) · 1194 history records