Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd252…775b sports 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$631 (-4%) realized −$444 · open −$187
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%83W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$4
14 days−$881
30 days−$1,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,267
crypto 13% +$513
other 10% +$146
world 8% $0
politics 6% −$232
culture 3% −$2
finance 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.6% -11.9% 37% 37% -9.5%
≤30d 57 -25.9% -32.9% 35% 35% -19.3%
≤90d 116 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 41% -14.7%
all 167 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 47% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 47% -13.7%
10% -24.3% 39% -21.9%
15% -31.6% 28% -29.5%
20% -38.3% 23% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$62 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses83 / 84
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions4
Markets (closed)167 / 171
History coverage120d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 58¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+94%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ $200 $8 −$192 (-96%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 58¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $498 −$2 -0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $497 −$5 -1%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $199 +$61 +31%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $996 −$674 -68%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $498 −$498 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $498 +$1,027 +206%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $498 +$428 +86%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $498 −$6 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $249 −$246 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $177 +$98 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $199 −$132 -66%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $199 +$344 +173%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$62 +62%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $200 +$144 +72%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $200 −$140 -70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $300 +$204 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +48%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $100 +$101 +101%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $105 −$34 -32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $200 +$58 +29%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $199 −$199 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $100 +$188 +188%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $250 +$81 +32%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$69 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$85 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$2 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $85 −$85 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $13 −$5 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $496 1h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $498 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $492 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $497 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 15¢ $322 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $498 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $199 23h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 99¢ $497 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $498 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $498 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $498 42h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 32¢ $498 42h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $498 45h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $492 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $498 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $3 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $249 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $199 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $275 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $177 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 23¢ $67 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $1 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $199 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $199 5d
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $544 6d
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 36¢ $199 6d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $100 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $60 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $200 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.63 · official $19.63 (match) · 593 history records