Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd251…4d37
weather · 551 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,331 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,943 · open +$86
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,482
Realized−$5,943
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses409 / 488
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions43
Markets (closed)897 / 551
History coverage29d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day102.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 43 History 897 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,653
7 days−$8,947
14 days−$8,340
30 days−$5,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $393 $398 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $388 $388 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $284 $299 +$15 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $283 $288 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 81¢ 82¢ $264 $271 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $230 $229 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 94¢ 96¢ $205 $208 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $169 $172 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $122 $156 +$34 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 99¢ 95¢ $157 $151 −$6 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 94¢ 98¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 95¢ 95¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $110 $114 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 73¢ 71¢ $113 $110 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 94¢ 92¢ $109 $106 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 1 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 25? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 18? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or below on February Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 11? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 2? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Jun 14 $0 −$8 -4177%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 10AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 2 Jun 14 $1 −$13 -1175%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on Feb Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 11PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 10AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 21? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26? Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 7AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Mar Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $3 +$35 +1098%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$4,022
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $31 1m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $28 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $71 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 7m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $19 8m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 9m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 10m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $20 10m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 12m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $136 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $15 17m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $25 17m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $101 17m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 18m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 30m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $8 47m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $36 47m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $8 47m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $23 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -62.9% -66.5% 26% 7% -32.4%
≤30d 895 -35.6% -41.7% 45% 14% -16.1%
≤90d 895 -35.6% -41.7% 45% 14% -16.1%
all 895 -35.6% -41.7% 45% 14% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 14% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.3% 8% -24.2%
15% -52.4% 6% -31.5%
20% -57.1% 4% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,482.08 · official $5,481.20 (match) · 3500 history records