Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd24f…d77e politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,629 (-1%) realized −$1,629 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%32W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$995per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$71
other 33% −$44
sports 14% −$1,522
culture 3% −$4
world 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$3
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -18.5% -26.3% 6% 0% -11.6%
all 127 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 9% -10.7%
10% -19.9% 9% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 9% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,426) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized−$1,629
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses32 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage139d
Avg bet$995
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $770 $771 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $381 $380 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,651 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,881 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $435 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $394 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,096 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $733 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,735 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $1,519 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,093 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,643 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $2,883 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,426 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,254 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $264 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2,056 −$1 -0%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 06 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-14? Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $381 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $770 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $887 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $888 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,335 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,211 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,326 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,328 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,188 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,190 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $394 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $394 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $419 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $419 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.03 · official $1,151.03 (match) · 424 history records