Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd24d…c173 world 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-18%) realized −$99 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$66
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$30 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 55¢ 74¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 62¢ 80¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+30%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 69¢ 86¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 70¢ 78¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 55¢ 57¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 57¢ 58¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 72¢ 60¢ $34 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 40¢ $33 $25 −$7 (-23%)
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 70¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.19 · official $309.19 (match) · 16 history records