Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd24b…187d weather 880 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,876 (+12%) realized +$5,819 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate85%732W / 131L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day183.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$559
other 9% −$160
sports 6% +$329
world 1% +$206
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 +2.8% -7.0% 84% 27% -5.0%
≤30d 863 +2.5% -7.3% 85% 28% -7.9%
≤90d 863 +2.5% -7.3% 85% 28% -7.9%
all 863 +2.5% -7.3% 85% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 28% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 15% -16.7%
15% -24.3% 9% -24.7%
20% -31.7% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$40 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,967
Realized+$5,819
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses732 / 131
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions29
Markets (closed)863 / 880
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day183.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 88¢ $695 $885 +$190 (+27%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $357 $308 −$49 (-14%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $332 $303 −$29 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $372 $279 −$93 (-25%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 88¢ $229 $270 +$41 (+18%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $153 $253 +$100 (+65%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $226 $173 −$53 (-24%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $119 $116 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 82¢ $84 $115 +$31 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $36 +$15 (+77%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-14%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $67 +$26 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $91 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $380 −$380 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $93 +$1 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 +$7 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $54 +$13 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $988 −$34 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $95 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$54 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 22m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 31m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 36m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 43m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 50m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 52m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 52m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,967.10 · official $3,757.09 · 3500 history records