Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd24b…ef76 politics 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,116 (+20%) realized +$24,203 · open +$6,913
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$2,288per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$41,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,252
7 days+$14,730
14 days+$14,656
30 days+$22,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$21,793
other 5% +$8,057
world 4% +$2,030
economics 0% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +120.7% +99.7% 100% 88% +37.7%
≤30d 32 +104.6% +85.1% 72% 66% +27.6%
≤90d 52 +52.5% +38.0% 58% 48% +22.8%
all 52 +52.5% +38.0% 58% 48% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.0% 48% +22.8%
10% +24.8% 42% +11.1%
15% ← realistic here +12.7% 31% +0.3%
20% +1.7% 25% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,308) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +114% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$973 vs −$208 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.37 per $1 lost it wins $6.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$41,455
Realized+$24,203
Unrealized+$6,913
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)52 / 67
History coverage54d
Avg bet$2,288
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $9,190 $11,583 +$2,393 (+26%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 100¢ $6,773 $7,807 +$1,034 (+15%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 53¢ 98¢ $3,175 $5,856 +$2,681 (+84%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $5,184 $5,242 +$58 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $3,134 $3,966 +$832 (+27%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $2,673 $2,688 +$15 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 57¢ 99¢ $860 $1,483 +$623 (+72%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1,357 $1,368 +$12 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,003 $1,112 +$110 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 81¢ 100¢ $268 $330 +$62 (+23%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $78 $10 −$68 (-87%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 15¢ 1¢ $152 $6 −$146 (-96%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $621 $2 −$619 (-100%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-99%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $6,947 +$8,048 +116%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $537 +$193 +36%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$12 +257%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $378 +$368 +98%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $29 +$114 +389%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $6,382 +$2,169 +34%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $11,979 +$3,734 +31%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,967 +$92 +5%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 15 $78 −$74 -95%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 09 $136 −$133 -97%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $3,746 +$1,711 +46%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 08 $8 +$14 +171%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $15 +$26 +173%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $1,308 −$708 -54%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $1,228 −$1,129 -92%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 05 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 05 $138 +$62 +44%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,631 +$625 +24%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $6,326 +$2,030 +32%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,931 +$1,719 +89%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $374 +$109 +29%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $2,150 +$1,382 +64%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $359 −$221 -62%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -97%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $3,239 −$86 -3%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $647 +$179 +28%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 01 $756 +$84 +11%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $259 +$819 +317%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $2,417 +$2,193 +91%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 26 $247 −$114 -46%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $3,591 +$2,498 +70%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $565 +$435 +77%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $654 +$11 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $1,824 +$326 +18%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 11 $343 +$44 +13%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 10 $364 −$360 -99%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $573 +$37 +6%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $1,214 +$86 +7%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $110 −$94 -86%
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2 May 08 $72 −$62 -86%
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2 May 08 $38 −$29 -78%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $120 −$101 -84%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 07 $1,121 −$74 -7%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 07 $1,022 −$135 -13%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in May 07 $360 −$352 -98%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 07 $151 −$47 -31%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 07 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 07 $121 −$6 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 41m
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 54m
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 81¢ $163 3h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 3h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 77¢ $389 4h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $660 4h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $132 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 6h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $132 11h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 69¢ $345 13h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $147 21h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 22h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 80¢ $794 25h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,632 26h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 26h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 26h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $172 26h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 27h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $138 27h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $669 27h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,201 34h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,025 34h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 44h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 44h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 44h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $34 44h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 45h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,455.31 · official $41,455.06 (match) · 1439 history records