Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd24b…2e34 sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 496d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$13 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%98W / 90L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$30
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$43
other 22% −$8
tech 16% +$15
sports 10% −$18
crypto 4% −$9
politics 4% −$21
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 40 -56.4% -60.6% 38% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 114 -30.6% -37.2% 46% 26% -12.3%
all 188 -13.4% -21.6% 52% 39% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 39% -8.0%
10% -29.1% 32% -16.8%
15% -36.0% 30% -24.8%
20% -42.2% 23% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

496d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses98 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)188 / 193
History coverage496d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 +$5 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $60 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $3 +$1 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$9 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $81 −$6 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $20 +$2 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Pre May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $65 +$16 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $9 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $18 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20? May 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15? May 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $20 +$1 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 78¢ $30 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 79¢ $10 38h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 38h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $12 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 7d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 12d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 12d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $10 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $30 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 13d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 16d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 16d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 17d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 54¢ $1 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $1 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.65 · official $78.65 (match) · 463 history records