Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd246…cfbf sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$484 (+7%) realized +$478 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$78
14 days−$77
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$4
crypto 32% +$5
sports 12% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.6% -34.5% 31% 31% -14.9%
≤30d 27 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 26% -3.3%
≤90d 27 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 26% -3.3%
all 27 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 26% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 26% -3.3%
10% -23.0% 22% -12.6%
15% -30.4% 22% -21.0%
20% -37.3% 19% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$11 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$478
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage23d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 52¢ $67 $74 +$6 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $51 −$2 -5%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $18 +$2 +12%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $33 +$17 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $18 +$9 +51%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $7 +$6 +92%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $35 +$55 +158%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $122 −$120 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $971 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $492 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $972 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $165 +$335 +203%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $540 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $280 +$220 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $451 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $372 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $68 12m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 52¢ $48 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 53¢ $51 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $14 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 50¢ $21 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $33 46h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $7 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $8 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $35 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $122 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $486 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $487 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $492 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.50 · official $73.50 (match) · 68 history records