Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd242…e84d crypto 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,200 (-3%) realized −$1,789 · open −$411
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%187W / 165L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$927
7 days−$434
14 days−$1,185
30 days−$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% −$1,626
other 23% −$3,721
world 20% +$350
tech 9% +$850
culture 8% +$1,399
economics 5% +$538
politics 4% +$189
sports 3% −$1,168
finance 2% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.7% -26.4% 41% 24% -16.3%
≤30d 30 -16.4% -24.3% 53% 33% -20.3%
≤90d 71 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 44% -9.5%
all 352 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 43% -13.1%
10% -20.1% 32% -21.4%
15% -27.9% 22% -29.0%
20% -34.9% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$103 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$1,533
Realized−$1,789
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses187 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions9
Markets (closed)352 / 361
History coverage578d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $559 $255 −$304 (-54%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $162 $157 −$5 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $138 +$32 (+30%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 80¢ 55¢ $180 $123 −$57 (-32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 52¢ $92 $108 +$16 (+17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $108 $93 −$15 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $44 −$10 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ $83 $14 −$68 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $167 +$5 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $3,623 −$96 -3%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 19 $138 −$138 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $300 −$23 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$485 +238%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $66 +$33 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $196 +$148 +76%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $741 +$25 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $166 −$107 -64%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $214 −$214 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $382 +$55 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $187 +$67 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $163 +$128 +79%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $363 +$14 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $628 −$628 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $158 +$20 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $164 +$36 +22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $113 +$64 +56%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th May 20 $566 +$75 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 12 $77 +$23 +30%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 10 $159 −$55 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $1,113 −$83 -7%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $195 −$195 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 03 $1,220 −$52 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? May 01 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $178 +$14 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $404 +$80 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $113 −$10 -9%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $84 +$12 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $92 −$2 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $650 +$91 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $786 +$205 +26%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $649 −$41 -6%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $172 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 75¢ $40 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 92¢ $80 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 95¢ $95 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $43 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $35 3d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 3d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 3d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 3d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $54 3d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $138 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $164 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $60 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $66 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $92 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,532.75 · official $1,533.39 (match) · 2529 history records