Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd241…2a86 crypto 473 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,924 (-2%) realized −$6,924 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%384W / 89L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$212
7 days+$212
14 days−$105
30 days−$1,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$7,587
politics 1% +$1,087
other 1% −$1,679
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.0% -6.8% 81% 45% -6.7%
≤30d 157 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 43% -15.3%
≤90d 359 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 31% -11.3%
all 473 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 30% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 30% -11.8%
10% -18.4% 17% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 12% -27.9%
20% -33.5% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$292 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,924
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses384 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)473 / 473
History coverage386d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 473 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$103 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $206 −$103 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $181 +$55 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $172 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $160 +$15 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $235 −$113 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $247 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $389 −$163 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $363 +$45 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$38 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $351 +$45 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $324 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $295 +$29 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $240 +$55 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $217 +$24 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $186 +$25 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$57 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$33 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $435 +$50 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $413 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $391 +$11 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $321 +$39 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $279 +$61 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$24 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $230 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $164 +$71 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $226 −$46 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $13 −$3 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $18 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $206 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $147 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $179 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $172 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $174 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $160 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2130 history records