Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd23f…94a1
weather · 627 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,589 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,081 · open −$9,186
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,134
Realized−$9,081
Unrealized−$9,186
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses21 / 161
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions493
Markets (closed)182 / 627
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1944.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 493 History 182 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,081
7 days−$9,081
14 days−$9,081
30 days−$9,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 78¢ $1 $35 +$33 (+2302%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 80¢ $2 $33 +$32 (+1888%)
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 2¢ 92¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+3580%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? Yes 17¢ 58¢ $7 $24 +$17 (+251%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 42¢ $1 $19 +$17 (+1186%)
Will De'Aaron Fox record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 36¢ $1 $16 +$15 (+1016%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 26¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+741%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 11¢ 35¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+215%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $182 $13 −$169 (-93%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 3¢ 60¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+1880%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Yes 12¢ 57¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+360%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 5¢ 34¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+555%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 50¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1434%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Washington Nationals have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Texas Rangers have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Colorado Rockies have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the Seattle Mariners have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1419%)
Will the New York Yankees have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Will the San Diego Padres have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+1388%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$67 +81655%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$13 +16453%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$7 +11477%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$17 +28603%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +5989%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 +$93 +184695%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$29 +61852%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$41 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$41 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$41 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$41 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 12 $47 −$41 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $38 −$34 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $472 −$471 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 −$115 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 −$103 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $91 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $11 −$8 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $933 −$914 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $982 −$921 -94%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1,001 −$883 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $39 −$36 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $52 −$45 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $55 −$53 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$10,038
weather 25% −$3,230
finance 15% −$3,451
tech 7% −$1,423
sports 3% −$298
politics 1% −$42
crypto 1% −$14
culture 0% −$3
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +6.0% -4.1% 12% 4% -86.4%
≤30d 182 +6.0% -4.1% 12% 4% -86.4%
≤90d 182 +6.0% -4.1% 12% 4% -86.4%
all 182 +6.0% -4.1% 12% 4% -86.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1944.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 4% -86.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -87.7%
15% -21.6% 4% -88.9%
20% -29.3% 4% -90.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,133.90 · official $1,214.82 · 3500 history records