Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd23c…ffac sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$346 (+14%) realized +$365 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days+$410
14 days+$406
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$343
other 8% −$17
politics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 50% +9.4%
≤30d 14 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤90d 14 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% +9.1%
all 20 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 45% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 45% +4.3%
10% -28.6% 40% -5.7%
15% -35.5% 40% -14.8%
20% -41.9% 40% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$66 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$365
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage376d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 69¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $152 +$79 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $152 −$150 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $203 +$168 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$197 +97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 24 $46 −$11 -24%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $253 −$253 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $139 +$72 +52%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $405 +$251 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $203 +$262 +129%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $15 +$12 +83%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $9 −$6 -70%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $5 +$5 +110%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $100 −$51 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $152 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $203 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $152 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $139 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $253 4d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $405 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 9d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 82¢ $8 16d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster $2 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $5 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 16¢ $8 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $19 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 65¢ $27 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 80¢ $10 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $3 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $2 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 $3 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 $3 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 20¢ $6 230d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $10 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.59 · official $330.59 (match) · 53 history records