Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd23a…8179 other 16 markets active 12h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-32%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$4
sports 43% −$13
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.8% +1.1% 73% 73% +6.9%
≤30d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 62% -46.5%
≤90d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 62% -46.5%
all 13 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 62% -46.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 62% -46.5%
10% -22.6% 62% -51.6%
15% -30.1% 46% -56.3%
20% -36.9% 23% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $1 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 24d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $3.44 (match) · 24 history records