Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D2 0xd23a…f0f0 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$18
politics 21% −$8
sports 9% +$74
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 99 +1.5% -8.2% 15% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage128d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $228 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $352 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $257 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $323 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $354 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,948 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,428 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $295 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $305 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $323 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $344 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $335 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 05 $664 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $841 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $278 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $254 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $364 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $309 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $710 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 19d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 34d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 35d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 35d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 44d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $239 60d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $239 60d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $243 61d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $243 61d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $333 61d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $333 62d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 62d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $243 62d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 62d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 63d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $242 63d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $242 63d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $340 63d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $340 63d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $259 64d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $259 64d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $352 64d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $352 64d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $248 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 311 history records