Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D2 0xd239…36ad other 5 markets active 4d ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$146 (+5%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$595per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$44
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$65
world 14% +$44
sports 6% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 80% 60% -5.1%
≤90d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 80% 60% -5.1%
all 5 +11.5% +0.9% 80% 60% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 60% -5.1%
10% -8.8% 20% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -22.5%
20% -25.7% 0% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
88.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$0 · ×32906.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×131624.7 per $1 lost it wins $131624.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage20d
Avg bet$595
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 14 $565 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 10 $411 +$44 +11%
Will Christian Yelich lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season May 29 $97 +$25 +26%
Will LaBaron Philon be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? May 29 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? May 26 $1,832 +$65 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $7 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $19 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $13 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $8 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $20 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 676 history records