Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd236…d292 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$47 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$367
other 3% −$730
crypto 0% −$93
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 19 -34.3% -40.6% 37% 37% +6.8%
all 75 -24.0% -31.2% 39% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 37% -11.0%
10% -37.8% 37% -19.5%
15% -43.8% 28% -27.3%
20% -49.3% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$162 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 68
History coverage274d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 12¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 18 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $101 −$42 -42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $102 +$24 +23%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 10 $102 +$131 +128%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $100 +$27 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $203 +$209 +103%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $1,200 +$1,411 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 29 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $11,620 −$3,795 -33%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $770 +$229 +30%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%? Nov 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 01 $326 −$23 -7%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 01 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $548 +$358 +65%
Thunder vs. Hawks Oct 31 $136 +$64 +47%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $158 +$113 +71%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 27 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 25 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $60 +$47 +79%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Oct 25 $61 +$39 +64%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Oct 24 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 24 $384 +$116 +30%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $48 +$52 +108%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 22 $400 −$60 -15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 22 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 22 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 20 $316 −$316 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Dolphins vs. Browns Oct 20 $100 +$72 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 12¢ $51 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 42d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Karmine Corp 56¢ $51 42d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 43d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $102 43d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL G2 Esports 44¢ $58 49d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $125 49d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $232 49d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 43¢ $102 49d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY G2 Esports 74¢ $101 49d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Movistar KOI 45¢ $102 50d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $412 50d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 50d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $100 62d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY No $100 66d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 15¢ $50 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up $5 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $20 133d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alcaraz 17¢ $100 149d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alcaraz 17¢ $100 149d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alcaraz 62¢ $500 149d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alcaraz 80¢ $500 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY Yes $100 212d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $999 231d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 40¢ $6,826 231d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 65¢ $11,000 231d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $770 235d
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%? BUY Yes $20 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.42 · official $5.42 (match) · 171 history records