Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd234…1589 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$861 (-69%) realized −$860 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$617
14 days−$806
30 days−$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$621
sports 26% −$186
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -46.5% -51.6% 8% 8% -91.3%
≤30d 21 -57.4% -61.5% 14% 14% -89.0%
≤90d 21 -57.4% -61.5% 14% 14% -89.0%
all 21 -57.4% -61.5% 14% 14% -89.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 14% -89.0%
10% -65.2% 10% -90.1%
15% -68.5% 10% -91.0%
20% -71.6% 5% -91.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$48 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$860
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $10 +$56 +542%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $587 −$580 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $103 −$87 -85%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $25 −$15 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Ha BUY $5 34h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Korea Republic win on 20 BUY $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a BUY $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY $10 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $15 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran BUY $2 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 21¢ $10 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium vs. E BUY $21 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 33¢ $10 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win o BUY 25¢ $15 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $25 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 14¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY $21 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.97 · official $128.98 (match) · 47 history records