Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd232…b817 sports 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+3%) realized +$142 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%69W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$102
14 days+$157
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$266
sports 33% +$35
crypto 2% −$88
world 2% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -15.5% -23.5% 32% 26% -11.8%
≤30d 187 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 30% -7.3%
≤90d 187 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 30% -7.3%
all 187 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 30% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 30% -7.3%
10% -19.7% 30% -16.2%
15% -27.5% 29% -24.3%
20% -34.6% 27% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses69 / 118
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)187 / 192
History coverage20d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 97¢ $41 $58 +$18 (+43%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 39¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $98 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $84 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $103 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $2 +$8 +300%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -89%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $14 +$16 +122%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $34 +$56 +163%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 −$12 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 +$69 +53%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$13 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 −$20 -35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 −$52 -73%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $23 −$14 -59%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$10 +92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$14 +37%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $22 +$8 +37%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $6 −$3 -51%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $26 −$13 -50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$13 +72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 −$3 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$38 +63%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $40 +$44 +111%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$6 -44%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 +$53 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $38 −$19 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $8 12m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 14m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $2 21m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 32m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 41m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 53m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $103 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $38 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $84 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 1¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 24¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 1¢ $0 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $4 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $19 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $7 18h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $15 21h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 69¢ $21 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.91 · official $131.91 (match) · 500 history records