Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd231…633c crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,167 (+8%) realized +$5,791 · open −$1,624
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%96W / 50L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Fees−$267est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,036
7 days+$782
14 days+$4,814
30 days+$4,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$6,590
crypto 33% −$2,245
other 9% −$825
weather 6% +$45
world 1% −$281
politics 0% −$95
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 51% -6.9%
≤30d 146 +6.4% -3.7% 66% 55% +0.4%
≤90d 146 +6.4% -3.7% 66% 55% +0.4%
all 146 +6.4% -3.7% 66% 55% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 55% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 49% -9.2%
15% -21.4% 38% -18.0%
20% -29.1% 30% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$223 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,793
Realized+$5,791
Unrealized−$1,624
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses96 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions12
Markets (closed)146 / 159
History coverage10d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 79¢ 88¢ $790 $885 +$95 (+12%)
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ 86¢ $603 $846 +$243 (+40%)
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Emilien Demanet 56¢ 71¢ $282 $355 +$73 (+26%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Oliver Crawford 67¢ 48¢ $402 $291 −$111 (-28%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 72¢ 40¢ $360 $198 −$163 (-45%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jakub Vrba 53¢ 100¢ $45 $85 +$40 (+89%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 15¢ 10¢ $90 $63 −$27 (-30%)
ITF Samobor: Ivan Biletic vs Piotr Galus Piotr Galus 40¢ 38¢ $37 $35 −$1 (-4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $303 $22 −$281 (-93%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Ryan Nijboer Pavlos Tsitsipas 12¢ $7 $12 +$4 (+64%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 63¢ $1,449 $1 −$1,448 (-100%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 48¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $617 +$259 +42%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $1,096 +$378 +34%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $785 +$215 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,437 +$611 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 +$362 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $708 +$386 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $491 +$914 +186%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,429 +$993 +70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $700 +$775 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$133 +85%
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Jun 16 $312 +$51 +16%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $72 −$71 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 +$30 +74%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Croatia finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 15 $92 −$2 -2%
Will "CHÉVERE - ARIA VEGA & Ryan Castro" be the song of the summer? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Will "Midnight Sun - Zara Larsson" be the song of the summer? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,138 −$1,126 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $805 −$800 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $101 +$33 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $726 +$274 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $550 −$550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $251 −$251 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $392 −$392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $365 −$365 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $512 −$512 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $518 −$518 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $469 −$469 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $427 +$273 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $119 +$32 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $510 −$507 -99%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $680 +$20 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,622 +$712 +44%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,579 +$479 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $243 +$193 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $172 +$68 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $127 +$42 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 65¢ $18 9m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 69¢ $19 10m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $18 11m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $88 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $8 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $153 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $154 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $123 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $15 12m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 61¢ $8 13m
ITF Samobor: Ivan Biletic vs Piotr Galus BUY Piotr Galus 40¢ $1 15m
ITF Samobor: Ivan Biletic vs Piotr Galus BUY Piotr Galus 40¢ $1 15m
ITF Samobor: Ivan Biletic vs Piotr Galus BUY Piotr Galus 40¢ $36 15m
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Ryan Nijboer BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas $7 24m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 67¢ $30 26m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 67¢ $197 26m
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Jakub Vrba 53¢ $23 34m
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Jakub Vrba 53¢ $23 34m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 56¢ $285 36m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 67¢ $13 36m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 67¢ $163 37m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 72¢ $363 38m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 79¢ $795 40m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 15¢ $92 43m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 70¢ $565 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 68¢ $52 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 67¢ $307 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 64¢ $259 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 67¢ $85 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 67¢ $34 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,792.61 · official $2,792.61 (match) · 1110 history records