Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd230…9b80 other 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-8%) realized −$259 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$46
14 days−$186
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$249
other 20% +$25
sports 16% +$22
tech 6% +$22
finance 5% −$36
crypto 4% −$29
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 47% -3.6%
≤30d 41 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 46% -18.8%
≤90d 60 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 40% -17.1%
all 60 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 40% -17.1%
10% -24.9% 37% -25.1%
15% -32.2% 32% -32.3%
20% -38.8% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)60 / 67
History coverage71d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+178%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? No 10¢ 2¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Brazil to win the second half? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Second half draw? Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$13 +124%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $35 +$25 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $33 −$16 -50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 −$10 -12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$8 -77%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$8 -31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$12 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$8 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$16 -64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$13 +53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$56 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $16 −$12 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $176 +$22 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $524 −$222 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$5 +50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $150 −$36 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2m
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2m
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 27m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Second half draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 3h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 4h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 29h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 30h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 37h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 37h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.14 · official $69.14 (match) · 144 history records