Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd22f…c30e sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$341 (-8%) realized −$355 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$392
other 21% +$160
world 1% −$41
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.8% -12.9% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 8 -3.8% -12.9% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 91 -0.7% -10.1% 53% 46% -16.3%
all 91 -0.7% -10.1% 53% 46% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 46% -16.3%
10% -18.7% 43% -24.3%
15% -26.6% 35% -31.6%
20% -33.8% 26% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage76d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners Over 26¢ 49¢ $40 $75 +$35 (+88%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $88 $73 −$15 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ Jun 25 $24 +$30 +122%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $77 −$77 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$26 +50%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$21 +71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 +$41 +60%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$34 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $59 −$58 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $21 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $12 +$14 +119%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci May 09 $186 −$185 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $44 −$7 -16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez May 08 $155 +$35 +23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $143 +$15 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 07 $100 +$43 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo May 06 $67 +$32 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Hanfmann May 06 $26 +$15 +57%
Brooksby vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5 May 06 $25 +$28 +114%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $42 −$42 -99%
Francavilla: Harry Wendelken vs Frederico Ferreira Silva May 05 $32 +$10 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Francisco Comesana vs Lean May 05 $21 +$11 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $28 −$28 -99%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 6.5 May 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 11.5 May 04 $56 +$52 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$56 +55%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $42 −$41 -99%
Aix en Provence: Zizou Bergs vs Alejandro Tabilo May 03 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-06? May 03 $44 +$83 +188%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $50 +$94 +188%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $19 −$18 -98%
Cagliari: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Andrea Pellegrino Apr 30 $11 +$9 +83%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 30 $69 +$2 +3%
Navone vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Apr 30 $48 +$20 +43%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 28 $246 −$246 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $1 $0 +39%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 27 $234 +$12 +5%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Apr 27 $198 +$37 +18%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Apr 27 $34 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 9z (BO5) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Apr 26 $150 +$34 +23%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Sarmiento vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? Apr 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Apr 26 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Apr 25 $8 +$3 +33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $16 +$11 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $40 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. BUY 44¢ $14 19h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ BUY 44¢ $24 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $77 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $52 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $30 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $69 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $59 46d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Casper Ruud 63¢ $21 46d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY MOUZ 45¢ $12 46d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes $0 46d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $66 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Tomas Etcheverry 76¢ $186 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 59¢ $44 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $190 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Jessica Pegula 81¢ $155 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 100¢ $158 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 90¢ $143 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 69¢ $100 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 67¢ $67 50d
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Hanfmann SELL Hurkacz 100¢ $41 50d
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Hanfmann BUY Hurkacz 63¢ $26 50d
Brooksby vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 50d
Brooksby vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.53 · official $341.53 (match) · 237 history records