Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd229…4633 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-45%) realized −$69 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$10
sports 28% −$42
world 14% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -74.2%
≤30d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -74.2%
≤90d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -74.2%
all 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -74.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.3% 20% -74.2%
10% -76.7% 20% -76.7%
15% -79.0% 20% -78.9%
20% -81.0% 0% -81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $21 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 29h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 6d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.01 · official $46.01 (match) · 12 history records