Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D2 0xd225…efc0 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$28 (+24%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%47W / 51L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$9
other 41% +$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +63.8% +48.2% 64% 64% +49.1%
≤30d 30 +40.8% +27.4% 50% 50% +49.3%
≤90d 98 +12.6% +1.9% 48% 47% +12.7%
all 98 +12.6% +1.9% 48% 47% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 47% +12.7%
10% -7.9% 46% +1.9%
15% -16.8% 41% -7.9%
20% -24.9% 35% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses47 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)98 / 104
History coverage61d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 24 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +291%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $5 +$3 +67%
Will NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 15 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 12 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 12 $1 +$3 +291%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 $0 +44%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 16d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 19d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 22d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 22d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 22d
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 22d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 23d
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $6.18 (match) · 166 history records