Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd222…1939 sports 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%26W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
other 24% −$5
politics 23% −$3
crypto 8% −$7
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 4% −$3
tech 3% $0
finance 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 51 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses26 / 217
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage170d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $154 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $173 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $76 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 29 $27 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $27 9h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $36 14d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $25 27d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $25 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $36 34d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $37 35d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $28 67d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $28 67d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 67d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 67d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $26 67d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $26 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 96¢ $27 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 98¢ $28 68d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 68d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $26 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $26 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $26 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $26 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 69d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $36 69d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 70d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $32 70d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $19 70d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $13 70d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $33 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 827 history records